Uncertain Future(s)

Marine biodiversity-ecosystem functions under uncertain environmental futures.

Anthropogenic activity is currently leading to dramatic transformations of ecosystems and losses of biodiversity. The recognition that these ecosystems provide services that are essential for human well-being has led to a major interest in the forms of the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationship. However, there is a lack of studies examining the impact of climate change on these relatio...

Climate and fishing steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures

Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with serious socio-economic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems show signs of recovery. A key challenge for ecosystem management is to anticipate the degree to which recovery is possible. By applying a statistical food-web model, using the Baltic Sea as a ...

On the Importance of Being Uncertain: Forecasting Population Futures for Australia

Heather Booth Knowledge of population futures is central to a wide range of policy and planning issues. Population projections have traditionally been the source of this knowledge, but projections are merely what-if scenarios, based on unrealistic assumptions without claim as to their probability of occurrence. Stochastic population forecasts provide a best estimate of the future population wit...

Climate and Weather Discourse in Anthropology: From Determinism to Uncertain Futures

Addressing surprise and uncertain futures in marine science, marine governance, and society

On an increasingly populated planet, with decreasing biodiversity and limited new opportunities to tap unexploited natural resources, there is a clear need to adjust aspects of marine management and governance. Although sectarian management has succeeded in addressing and managing some important threats to marine ecosystems, unintended consequences are often associated with overlooking nonlinea...